Situation: You are running Caw-Blade in standard on the play. Your opening hand is [3 land, Preordain, Squadron Hawk, 2 other spells costing more than 1]. If you’re like me, you are terrified of drawing the second Hawk before you make your next land drop. Are your odds better of avoiding this heart sinking fate if you Preordain turn 1 or just land->go? You might snap answer that since Preordain is a library manipulation card, that obviously its going to help control your draws. However! Preordain is actually only good at finding cards you WANT to draw, it is not good at avoiding specific cards you do NOT want to draw.
Observe:
Odds of drawing a Squadron Hawk on turn 2, having done nothing turn 1 = 3/53 = .056%
This is the number to beat!
Assume you resolve Preordain rationally and don’t just always put two non-hawks on top to guarantee avoiding a random draw that could be Hawk. I asked a number of competent players to estimate the ratios that they bottom 0:1:2 cards with Preordain. The broad consensus is about 1:2:2. Given that data, here is all possible ways Preordain can resolve:
Hawk Preordain Math
Conclusion: if you Preordain rationally, there is a .064% chance of drawing a Squad Hawk on turn 2. You should not play it turn 1. Furthermore, Preordain is increasingly powerful as the game goes on. The only reason to Preordain turn 1 is if you kept a 1 lander.
I endorse your use of exclamation points for dramatic emphasis.
your decimal points are off by 2 places